Prediksi Dividen Payout dengan menggunakan Metode Regresi Linear Berganda
Abstract
Dividen merupakan distribusi laba perusahaan
kepada investor dan mengukur kinerja keuangan perusahaan.
Penelitian ini bertujuan memprediksi dividen payout
menggunakan metode Regresi Linear Berganda dengan
variabel fundamental keuangan, yaitu Earning per Share
(EPS), Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), Return on Assets (ROA),
Return on Equity (ROE), Current Ratio (CR), dan Firm Size.
Evaluasi dilakukan dengan membandingkan performa model
Regresi Linear Sederhana, yang hanya menggunakan waktu
(tahun) sebagai variabel independen, dengan model Regresi
Linear Berganda menambahkan variabel fundamental
keuangan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model Regresi
Linear Sederhana memperoleh nilai rata-rata R-squared
sebesar 0.296. Penambahan EPS sebagai variabel independen
meningkatkan nilai rata-rata R-squared secara signifikan
menjadi 0.722. Dengan menambahkan variabel fundamental
lainnya, seperti DER, ROA, ROE, CR, dan Firm Size nilai ratarata R-squared meningkat menjadi 0.797. Berdasarkan
pengujian statistik, nilai rata-rata R-squared untuk Regresi
Linear Berganda meningkat dengan penambahan variabel
fundamental lainnya. Namun, peningkatan variansi model
tersebut tidak signifikan dan lebih kecil. Kesimpulannya, model
Regresi Linear Berganda meningkatkan akurasi prediksi
dividen payout dibandingkan model Regresi Linear Sederhana.
Penggunaan data fundamental keuangan terbukti memberikan
hasil prediksi yang lebih akurat dan dapat menjadi alat yang
bermanfaat bagi investor dalam pengambilan keputusan
Kata kunci— Regresi Linear Berganda, Prediksi Dividen Payout, Saham
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