Valuasi Saham Pada Perusahaan Sub Sektor Farmasi Dengan Metode Discounted Cash Flow Dan Relative Valuation Pada Periode Tahun 2013-2020

Afna Dalilah, Riko Hendrawan

Abstract

Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melakukan perhitungan nilai wajar saham perusahaan farmasi yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu data historis dari laporan keuangan 2013- 2020 yang dijadikan sebagai dasar untuk proyeksi tahun 2021-2025. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) dengan pendekatan Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) dan Relative Valuation dengan pendekatan Price to Earning Ratio (PER) dan Price to Book Value (PBV) pada tiga skenario. Tiga skenario yang digunakan yaitu skenario optimis (kondisi di atas pertumbuhan industri), skenario moderat (kondisi yang paling mungkin untuk perusahaan), dan skenario pesimis (kondisi rata – rata industri). Dari hasil penelitian, didapatkan dengan metode DCF-FCFF saham KAEF dan PYFA mengalami kondisi overvalued di semua skenario. Sementara, saham KLBF dan DVLA mengalami kondisi undervalued di semua skenario. Kemudian dari hasil perhitungan relative valuation, masing – masing perusahaan masih berada pada range industri di semua skenario. Secara keseluruhan saham KAEF mengalami overvalued sebesar 57,817%, saham KLBF mengalami kondisi undervalued sebesar 7,879%, saham DVLA mengalami kondisi undervalued sebesar 370,865%, dan saham PYFA mengalami kondisi overvalued sebesar 16,662% baik dari sisi DCF maupun relative valuation. Kata kunci: Valuasi, Discounted Cash Flow, Relative Valuation, Sub Sektor Farmasi. Abstract This research aims at calculating the fair value of shares of pharmaceutical companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The data used in this research is historical data from the 2013-2020 financial statements, which are used as the basis for projections in 2021-2025. The method used in this research is Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method with Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) approach and Relative Valuation method with Price to Earning Ratio (PER) and Price to Book Value (PBV) approaches in three scenarios. The three scenarios used are the optimistic scenario (condition above industry growth), the moderate scenario (the most likely condition for the company), and the pessimistic scenario (the average condition of the industry). The results of the research showed that by using the DCF-FCFF method, KAEF and PYFA stocks experienced overvalued conditions in all scenarios. Meanwhile, KLBF and DVLA stocks were undervalued in all scenarios. Then, from the calculation of the Relative Valuation method, each company was still within the industry range in all scenarios. Overall, KAEF stocks were overvalued by 57.817%, KLBF stocks were undervalued by 7.879%, DVLA stocks were undervalued by 370.865%, and PYFA stocks were overvalued by 16.662% both in DCF method and in Relative Valuation method. Keywords: Valuation, Discounted Cash Flow, Relative Valuation, Pharmaceutical Sub-Sector.

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