Analisis dan Prediksi Penjualan pada Marketplace Berdasarkan Pendekatan Klasifikasi dengan Metode Pohon Keputusan (Studi Kasus pada Data Katalog dan Penjualan Tas Pria & Wanita di Tokopedia secara Nasional)
Abstract
Abstrak Selain digunakan untuk memperoleh dan menyebarkan informasi, internet juga digunakan untuk berbagai kebutuhan lainnya, salah satunya adalah jual – beli atau bisnis secara online. Melihat perkembangan pengguna internet dan pertumbuhan pasar e – commerce di Indonesia, menarik pelaku bisnis untuk memanfaatkan keberadaan sejumlah online marketplace sebagai tempat pemasaran produk. Akan tetapi, pelaku bisnis harus mampu bersaing dengan kompetitor dengan jumlah yang sangat banyak pada kategori produk yang sejenis. Permasalahan lainnya adalah kesalahan dalam memprediksi penjualan dan kurangnya informasi mengenai pola pasar dapat mengakibatkan kerugian bagi pelaku bisnis. Akan tetapi, penelitian mengenai pelaku bisnis dengan metode pohon keputusan tidak banyak dilakukan di Indonesia Pada penelitian ini, kami membangun model prediksi penjualan berdasarkan data penjualan produk tas pria & wanita di salah satu online marketplace terbesar di Indonesia yaitu Tokopedia. Proses pengambilan data dilakukan dengan tehnik data mining. Model prediksi penjualan dibangun dengan pendekatan klasifikasi dan metode pohon keputusan CHAID. Penelitian ini akan menggambarkan pola pasar yang terbentuk dari karakteristik data. Dari pohon keputusan yang terbentuk, kami dapat memprediksi potensi penjualan produk berdasarkan jumlah viewer, rating, dan tipe produk tas pria & wanita. Abstract In addition to being used for obtaining and sharing information, the internet is also used for various other needs, one of which is selling - buying process. Seeing the growth of internet users and e-commerce market in Indonesia, attract business people to use the existence of a number of online marketplace as a place of product marketing. However, business people must be able to compete with competitors with a very large number in the category of similar products. Other problems are errors in predicting sales and lack of information about market patterns can result in losses for business people. However, research on business people with decision tree methods is not widely practiced in Indonesia. In this study, we built a sales prediction model based on sales data of men & women bags products at one of the largest online marketplace in Indonesia, Tokopedia. The process of data retrieval is done with data mining techniques. The sales prediction model is built using classification approach and CHAID decision tree method. This research will describe the market pattern formed from the data characteristics. Based on the decision tree that formed, we can predict the potential sales of the product based on the number of viewers, ratings, and product type of men & women bags. Keywords : E –Marketing, EWOM, Purchasing Decision, Data Mining, Classification, CHAID AlgorithmReferences
Baradwaj, B., K, & Pal, S. (2011). Mining educational data to analyze students performance. International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications, 6(2), 63–69.
Buattoko. (2015, 22 September). Kekurangan berjualan di marketplace bagi penjual online. Didapat dari Oktober 2016]. http://buattokoonline.id/kekurangan-berjualan-di-marketplace-bagi-penjual-online/[08
Flanagin, A. J., Metzger, M. J., & Pure, R. (2014). Mitigating risk in e – commerce transaction : Perception of information credibility and the role of user – generated ratings in product quality and purchase intention. Electronic Commerce Research, 14(1), 1–23.
Han, J., Kamber, M., & Pei, J. (2012). Data mining : Concepts and techniques (3rd ed. ). Morgan Kaufman.
Hawkins, D. I., & Mothersbaugh, D. L. (2013). Consumer behavior : Building marketing strategy (12th ed. ). New York, USA, McGraw Hill/Irwin.
Hermawati, F. A. (2013). Data mining. Andi.
Hsu, C. L., Chang, K. C., & Chen, M. C. (2012). The impact of website quality on customer satisfaction and purchase intention : Perceived playfulness and perceived flow as mediators. Information System and E – Business Management, 10(4) 549–570.
Stats, I. W. (2016). Asia top internet countries. Didapat dari Oktober 2016]. http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats3.htm[07
Jamaludin, F. (2015, 14 Desember). Ukm ramai – ramai titip jualan di situs marketplace. Didapat dari Oktober 2016]. https://www.merdeka.com/teknologi/ukm-ramai-ramai-titip-jualan-di-situs-marketplace.html[08
Jiang, N., Muttaqin, M., Kaur, M., & Yang, X. (2015). The effect of websites performance and online retailer status on consumer purchase intention : A mediator role of buyer perception. International Journal of Business and Management, 10(10), 158–170.
Kantardzic, M. (2011). Data mining : Concepts, models, methods, and algorithms (2nd ed. ). Hoboken, New Jersey : John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Kotler, P., & Armstrong, G. (2011). Principle of marketing (14th ed. ). Pearson Prentice Hall.
Kotler, P., & Keller, K. L. (2009). Marketing management (13th ed. ). Pearson Education.
Kunto, Y., S, Hasana, S., & N. (2006). Analisis CHAID sebagai alat bantu statistika untuk segmentasi pasar (studi kasus pada koperasi syaria’ah al – hidayah), jurnal manajemen universitas kristen petra surabaya, 1(2), 88–97.
Laudon, K. C., & Traver, C. G. (2012). E – commerce : Business, technology, society (8th ed. ). Edinburgh Gate, Harlow, Inggris : Pearson Education Limited.
Lukman, E. (2014, 31 Oktober). Tokopedia: The founding story of Indonesia’s new ecommerce giant (#startupasia preview). Didapat dari Oktober 2016]. https://www.techinasia.com/tokopedia-william-tanuwijayafounding-story-startup-asia-jakarta[08
Maimon, O., & Rokach, L. (2008). Data mining with decision trees : Theory and applications.
Nguyen, T. N., Phan, T. P., & Vu, P. A. (2015). The impact of marketing mix elements on food buying behavior : A study of supermarket consumers in vietnam. International Journal of Business and Management, 10(10), 206–215.
BisnisUKM, R. (2010, 20 Desember). Memulai usaha kecil menengah dengan memproduksi tas. Didapat dari Oktober 2016]. https://bisnisukm.com/memulai-usaha-kecil-menengah-dengan-memproduksi-tas.html[08
Saxena, R. (2015). Educational data mining : Performance evaluation of decision tree and clustering techniques using WEKA platform. International Journal of Technology Innovations and Research, 14, 1–10.
Sinha, J. (2010). Factors affecting online shopping behavior of indian consumer. Desertasi Doktor pada University of South Carolina, USA.
Strauss, J., & Frost, R. (2014). E – marketing (7th ed. ). Edinburgh Gate, Inggris : Pearson Education Limited.
Yoon, C. W., Kim, Y. J., & Sanders, G. L. (2015). The impact of interactiviy of electronic word of mouth system and e – quality on decision support in the context of the e- marketplace. Information & Management, 52, 497–506.
Zhu, F., & Zhang, X. (2010). Impact of online consumer reviews on sales : The moderating role of product and consumer characteristic. Journal of Marketing 74, 133–148.
