Dampak Harga Saham Global, Harga Emas, Dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (Ihsg) Indonesia Di Sekitar Peristiwa Reshuffle Menteri Keuangan Tahun 2025
Abstrak
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) merupakan barometer utama kinerja pasar modal Indonesia yang mencerminkan persepsi investor terhadap kondisi ekonomi dan kebijakan pemerintah. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh indeks saham global (Nasdaq Composite dan Straits Times Index), harga emas dunia, dan nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap IHSG di sekitar peristiwa reshuffle Menteri Keuangan tahun 2025. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif kausal dengan data harian pada periode 50 hari sebelum hingga 50 hari sesudah 8 September 2025, menghasilkan 101 observasi (100 observasi efektif setelah pembentukan variabel lag). Analisis data dilakukan menggunakan regresi linier berganda dengan metode Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) berbantuan EViews 13. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Straits Times Index (STI) berpengaruh positif sangat signifikan terhadap IHSG dengan koefisien 0,474 (p=0,0009), menjadikannya variabel eksternal paling dominan. Nasdaq Composite berpengaruh positif signifikan marginal pada taraf 10 persen. Sementara itu, harga emas dunia, nilai tukar Rupiah, dan variabel dummy reshuffle tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Secara simultan, model mampu menjelaskan 97,8% variasi IHSG. Temuan ini memberikan implikasi bahwa integrasi pasar regional (STI) lebih dominan daripada pasar global (NASDAQ) dalam mempengaruhi IHSG pada periode ketidakpastian politik jangka pendek. Kata Kunci: indeks harga saham gabungan, indeks saham global, harga emas, nilai tukar rupiah, reshuffle kabinet
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