Analisis Profit Forecasting Menggunakan Metode Trend Moment (Studi Kasus Pada Distributor Susu Pasteurisasi Kpbs Dalam Program Mbg)
Abstract
The Makan Bergizi Gratis (MBG) Program has increased sales volume for KPBS milk distributors however, this has not consistently translated into improved profitability. This study aims to analyze the daily profit pattern of the Kembar Baru Utara Branch KPBS distributor during August–November 2025 and evaluate the feasibility of a profit forecasting model using the Trend Moment method. Employing a descriptive quantitative approach, the research utilizes 60 days of effective daily profit time series data, complemented by component analysis of revenue and operational costs, model significance testing via ANOVA, and accuracy validation based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), including out-of-sample validation against 10 days of actual post-observation data. Findings reveal extreme profit volatility driven by a mismatch between highly fluctuating revenue—shaped by the topdown allocation mechanism of the MBG program—and relatively fixed operational costs. Although the coefficient of determination is low (R² = 0.134), the Trend Moment model is statistically significant (Significance F = 0.003 < 0.05) and yields an out-of-sample MAPE of 20.18%, classified as good according to Lewis (1982). This confirms that the sustainability of UMKM participation in government programs depends not on sales volume, but on adaptive capacity in cost structure management and the strategic use of simple forecasting tools for short-term operational planning. Keyword: Daily profit, Trend Moment, MAPE, MBG, milk distributor
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