Analisis Pengaruh Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (Gepu), Cboe Volatility Index (Vix), Gold Price (Gp) Terhadap Return Idx30 (Periode Januari 2020-April 2025)
Abstract
Penanam saham perlu mendapat pengetahuan akan berbagai unsur yang bisa memberikan pengaruh pergerakan stock price/stock index, karena tidak semua faktor itu penting dan beberapa hanya noise saja. Ketidakpastian global telah diakui sebagai pendorong signifikan fluktuasi besar dalam harga aset dunia. Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU), CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), dan Gold Price (GP) merupakan variabel yang terasosiasi dengan risiko makro global dan ketidakpastian global, yang mana dinilai penting untuk return saham menurut penelitian terdahulu. IDX30 merupakan indeks besar di Indonesia yang terdiri dari 30 perusahaan dengan fundamental terbaik, namun penelitian mengenai pengaruh GEPU, VIX, dan GP terhadap return IDX30 masih terbatas. Temuan dari penelitian ini adalah GEPU, VIX, dan GP berpengaruh secara parsial terhadap return IDX30 pada periode Januari 2020-April 2025. GEPU berpengaruh positif terhadap return IDX30 yang mana menolak hipotesis awal, VIX dan GP berpengaruh negatif terhadap return IDX30 yang mana sesuai dengan hipotesis awal. GEPU, VIX, dan GP berpengaruh secara simultan terhadap return IDX30. Riset selanjutnya yang meneliti akan pengaruh variabel ketidakpastian global terhadap return IDX30 dapat menjadikan riset ini sebagai rujukan. Penelitian ini juga dapat membantu investor dan regulator untuk membantu pengambilan keputusan.
Kata Kunci: GEPU, VIX, Gold Price, Ketidakpastian Global, IDX30, Return saham
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