ANALISIS PENGARUH FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO, TABUNGAN NASIONAL BRUTO, PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL, INFLASI, DAN KREDIT DOMESTIK TERHADAP KINERJA UMKM DI EMPAT NEGARA ANGGOTA ASEAN
Abstrak
Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB),
Tabungan Nasional Bruto (TNB), perdagangan internasional, inflasi, dan kredit domestik terhadap kinerja Usaha
Mikro, Kecil, dan Menengah (UMKM) di empat negara ASEAN (Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, dan Thailand)
selama tahun 2000-2023. Metode penelitian menggunakan analisis regresi data panel dan regresi linier berganda
dengan sumber data sekunder dari Asian Development Bank, World Bank, OECD, serta lembaga resmi negara
terkait. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa secara simultan seluruh variabel makroekonomi berpengaruh signifikan
terhadap kinerja UMKM. Secara parsial, FDI berdampak negatif signifikan pada UMKM di Indonesia, namun
insignifikan secara agregat ASEAN. Pertumbuhan ekonomi (PDB) menunjukkan pengaruh positif signifikan di
kedua regresi. TNB berpengaruh positif signifikan secara regional ASEAN tetapi insignifikan di Indonesia.
Perdagangan internasional secara agregat berdampak negatif signifikan pada UMKM ASEAN, namun
insignifikan di Indonesia. Inflasi berpengaruh insignifikan pada keduanya. Kredit domestik menunjukkan
pengaruh negatif signifikan di ASEAN, namun positif signifikan di Indonesia. Penelitian ini diharapkan dapat
memberikan kontribusi dalam pengembangan literatur mengenai pengaruh indikator ekonomi makro terhadap
UMKM. Temuan penelitian diharapkan mampu memberikan rekomendasi bagi pembuat kebijakan, serta bagi
pelaku usaha UMKM. Penelitian selanjutnya disarankan memperluas cakupan negara dan menambahkan
indikator ekonomi lain yang relevan untuk mendapatkan hasil yang lebih komprehensif.
Kata Kunci: UMKM, indikator ekonomi makro, ASEAN, Indonesia
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