INDUSTRIAL FUTURE-SHAPING ON INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY FOR INDONESIA WITH TRANSFORMATIVE SCENARIO PLANNING APPROACHES

Achmad Yahya Sjarifuddin, Yos Sunitiyoso

Abstract

The future of ICT industry in Indonesia is still full of uncertainties along with various issues emerging, such as coordination among stakeholders with their respective goals and interests, frequent regulatory changes, central government and local government policies, licensing, tariffs, human resources expertise, and many more. Furthermore, the problems on what approach will be used about the future, whether to accept what will happen and try to be able to adapt to it or prefer to challenge it and try to change it are the options that need to be concerned about.
If we decide to change it, any decision made by stakeholders who have the same desire to change will certainly result in different scenarios. This will sometimes lead to deadlocks and inconsistencies, which in turn making them realizes that change cannot be unilateral.
This research applies a combination of Transformative Scenario Planning method (Kahane, 2012) approach with Delphi Technique (Linstone, 1975), which is highly relies on a panel of experts (Dalkey, 1963). This panel of experts consists of several actors representing the stakeholders of the Indonesian ICT industry. Both stakeholders representing individuals and representing a particular institution have relevant knowledge and experience in one of their fields or sectors. Through literature studies, field observations and in-depth interviews with each stakeholder representation, the stakeholder understanding of each system, roles and perspectives are developed into several structured narrative plans of what they can do and will do to overcome the obstacles, to get unstuck, move forward and create change.
From the convening of a scenario team and constructing the four scenarios about what could happen in the future of the Indonesian ICT Industry, it results the conclusions to deal with the opportunities and challenges simulated by these four scenarios, namely "the Sovereignty", "the Umbrella", "the Prioritize", and "the King.â€
The purpose of this research after constructing the scenario is certainly to use this scenario to transform what could happen in and around the ICT industry in Indonesia. These scenarios are not ending of this research, but it must then be used to make a positive transformation as a very emergent recommendation.
Transformation is kind of a process, not a destination. Hopefully, this research becomes a guideline that can be discussed further by all stakeholders in the Indonesian ICT Industry for a better future. The consistency and attention of all stakeholders are very important in the implementation of this recommendation.
Keywords: Scenario Planning; Information and Communication Technology; Transformative Scenario Planning; Delphi Technique

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